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Deloitte experts forecast growth in Greece's real estate market

Published on
November 22, 2024

Economic growth, new urban projects, and a thriving residential property market

The latest report from Deloitte, one of the Big Four consulting firms, highlights improvements in Greece's economic conditions and the growth of its residential real estate sector. Greece remains one of the most affordable property markets in the EU, with housing prices starting at just €1,463 per square meter—only Bosnia and Herzegovina offers lower prices.

The combination of high market competition and moderate economic recovery has kept housing prices relatively low. However, the market is demonstrating positive momentum, primarily driven by foreign investment and a robust tourism sector. This trend indicates that property values are likely to rise.

In the EU, housing markets are closely tied to economic indicators. A growing GDP typically supports rising property prices. Additionally, interest rates play a critical role; higher rates make mortgages more expensive, dampening housing demand. While declining rates could support property values, experts warn that interest rates are unlikely to return to pre-energy crisis lows anytime soon. This means housing may become more accessible, but a significant drop in prices is not expected.

What do the forecasts say?

Drawing on 2023 data, Deloitte’s 13th Real Estate Index offers valuable insights into the European market, with a specific focus on Greece. The key findings emphasize:

  • Increased foreign investment: A steady influx of international buyers is bolstering demand for residential properties, particularly in urban areas and tourist hubs.
  • Tourism’s impact: The strong recovery of Greece’s tourism sector continues to drive demand for rental properties, further boosting the housing market.
  • Future price trends: While housing remains affordable compared to other EU nations, prices are expected to steadily rise due to increased demand and economic recovery.

Read the full analysis to explore how Greece’s housing market is evolving and what opportunities lie ahead for investors.

European real estate market: key trends

According to experts, the European residential property market is currently shaped by several key trends.

  1. Digital transformation
    The digitalization of the real estate sector has continued, making transactions faster and more transparent. Buyers can now finalize contracts online, with many willing to commit to purchases based on virtual tours alone.
  2. Growth in the Build-to-Rent (BTR) segment
    The rental market remains a favorite among investors due to its stable and long-term returns. Demand for rental housing is particularly strong among young professionals and urban dwellers. Developers and renovation projects are adapting to meet their needs, creating modern complexes with community-focused amenities.
  3. Increased caution amid economic uncertainty
    High interest rates and inflation have tempered demand, especially among first-time buyers. This caution could lead to market stabilization, providing more predictable conditions for investors and buyers alike.
  4. Sustainability and energy efficiency
    Despite these challenges, sustainability remains a top priority. Buyers and investors are increasingly drawn to energy-efficient properties, while new regulatory requirements are driving the adoption of green technologies. This focus on eco-friendly solutions enhances the long-term value of properties.
  5. The affordable housing gap
    The shortage of affordable housing is pushing governments to explore innovative construction methods and implement rental market regulations to ensure a steady supply. Stricter rental regulations are becoming more common as part of these efforts.

We’ve previously discussed how Greece is addressing this issue and how investors can navigate the evolving rental market landscape there. Stay informed to make the most of these changes.

Final expert assessment: the market is uncertain but remains resilient and adaptable.

European rental market highlights

Most expensive cities for rent in 2023:

  • London (central) takes the lead with an average rental rate of €33.8/m².
  • Dublin (€31.5/m²) and Paris (€31.3/m²) also rank among the top.
  • Athens sits mid-range with an average rate of €11.7/m².
  • Other cities with high rental prices include Barcelona, Amsterdam, Oslo, Madrid, Munich, Copenhagen, and London suburbs.

Most affordable cities for rent:

  • Patras (€6.3/m²), Burgas (€6.9/m²), and Turin (€7.3/m²) are the most budget-friendly.
  • Other affordable cities include Thessaloniki, Varna, Brașov, and Ostrava, where rental costs are below €9/m².

Cities with significant rental price increases:

  • Manchester: +51.4%
  • Porto: +35.6%
  • London (central): +27.3%
  • Lisbon: +24.8%
  • London suburbs: +21.3%

Cities with declining rental prices:

  • Lyon: -10.5%
  • Oslo: -6.1%
  • Trondheim: -6.0%

These figures demonstrate the diversity of Europe’s rental market, offering opportunities for both premium and budget investment strategies.

Athens rental market growth:
In Q3 2024, Athens saw a 7.1% increase in rental prices, with the most expensive areas being:

  • Vouliagmeni: €20/m²
  • Kolonaki: €16.7/m²
  • Glyfada: €16.5/m²
  • Paleo Psychiko: €16/m²
  • Voula: €15.7/m²

The European rental market remains dynamic, with both high-end and affordable opportunities for investors and renters.

Greece's real estate market: current trends and forecasts

In 2023, Greece's real estate market witnessed high demand from both local and international buyers, particularly in the luxury housing segment. Despite geopolitical uncertainties and high inflation, property prices and investment activity continued to rise.

The residential sector, especially properties with strong investment potential, proved the most attractive, driving significant price increases for apartments. The highest growth rates were recorded in major cities such as Thessaloniki (16.2%) and Athens (13.7%).

Today, purchasing a new home in Greece typically costs between 6 to 8 years' worth of an average salary, a ratio comparable to countries like Poland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Netherlands, the UK, and Slovenia.

Key factors driving demand:

  • High interest from foreign investors
  • Limited supply in the luxury housing market
  • Positive trends in tourism
  • The popularity of short-term rentals

Additionally, subsidized housing programs for young buyers have strengthened the market, contributing to overall price increases. Investment in residential real estate grew by 20.7%, although its share in GDP remains low (1.9%).

Factors supporting market growth:

  • Economic recovery and infrastructure development
  • The appeal of Athens as a tourist destination and its impact on real estate
  • The "Golden Visa" program's role in driving property demand

Positive forecasts in the construction sector, coupled with an 18.1% increase in interest in new projects in 2023, highlight the long-term growth potential of the market. High demand from foreign investors, particularly in the luxury segment, combined with limited supply, continues to push prices upward. The "Golden Visa" program remains a key driver of capital inflows into the market.

Outlook:

Greece's real estate market is on an upward trajectory, with strong price growth, active investor interest, and support from the booming tourism sector. Athens, as the primary hub of demand, shows consistent growth in both sales and rentals. However, the market's future growth will depend on its ability to meet rising demand through increased supply and improved investment infrastructure.

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